Editor's note: The public is increasingly split as to whether people are exaggerating or underestimating the health threat of COVID, and it is becoming an increasingly emotional issue, which is understandable, considering what is at stake. Here at TTP we can honestly say that we don't know, and see compelling arguments from both camps. In that spirit, we will publish both sides if we think they shed some light. As the saying goes, "Truth is born in debate."
With everything else about this Coronavirus having been proved to be exactly within the bounds of a normal flu, I now have readers saying “yeah but what about the hospitalizations? Maybe the death toll is the same as the flu, but the hospitalization rate is higher.”
This is yet another attempt by people to cope with the fact that they have been duped into falling into a state of mass hysteria.
I have no doubt that hospitals are having a hard time dealing with the patients coming in from Coronavirus/the flu, as is being reported by the media.
The thing that is going unsaid is that they must have also had a hard time dealing with the nearly 1 million people who were hospitalized for the flu during the 2017-18 flu season.
As a matter of fact, we’ve got a pretty good record of that hard time they had.
I dare say, those headlines look shockingly similar to the ones we’re seeing right now with the hysterical Coronavirus situation.
Here’s a graph from the CDC showing the estimated flu cases, hospitalizations and deaths since 2011.
We’ll zoom in so you can see those numbers a bit better.
And you can check out the entire breakdown on the CDC website.
For some reason, the CDC’s website still has the 2017-2018 season estimates from spring of 2018 on their website.
But the estimated death toll, which is listed there as 61,000, was later upgraded to 80,000. That finalization of the death toll was announced in September of 2018, but they haven’t updated their public website with the final statistics.
AP, September 26, 2018:
An estimated 80,000 Americans died of flu and its complications last winter — the disease’s highest death toll in at least four decades.
The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Robert Redfield, revealed the total in an interview Tuesday night with The Associated Press.
Flu experts knew it was a very bad season, but at least one found size of the estimate surprising.
“That’s huge,” said Dr. William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University vaccine expert. The tally was nearly twice as much as what health officials previously considered a bad year, he said.
So I assume the hospitalization number was also low when the estimate of 810,000 was given, and the actual number of hospitalizations for the flu reached over a million in the 2017-18 season.
With Coronavirus, we do not have nationwide statistics on hospitalizations.
What we do have is the number from New York, which was given in the New York Times on Wednesday:
The number of patients hospitalized surpassed 10,900, up 15 percent from yesterday. Of those, 2,710 are currently in intensive care rooms with ventilators.
So, let’s do the math.
At time of writing, 83,712 of the nation’s 205,438 cases are in New York.
That means New York has 40% of the nation’s confirmed cases.
So if the rest of the nation has roughly the same rate of hospitalizations, and they currently have 10,900 hospitalizations, then the total number of hospitalizations nationwide would be about 27,250.
And that is 3.4% of the total 810,000 recorded hospitalizations in 2018.
If you extrapolate that across the entire 6-month flu season, with the mean average flu hospital stays ranging from 5-10 days, and consider that March is often a peak month, you would get a number significantly lower than 80,000.
“Hospitals overwhelmed” is the meme.
But we have to believe they were also overwhelmed in 2018, when the numbers were higher.
In 2018, no one was paying attention to any of this. It was talked about casually on the news, and people would say to each other “oh yeah, I heard the flu is really bad this year…”, but there was no mass discussion of the issue.
Conversely, this year, we have a mass hysteria, with the entire media reporting on every detail of the development of the virus situation, so what is actually just a normal flu season becomes an unmanageable crisis that shuts down the entire country and destroys the economy.
Do you know how many people die every year in car crashes in the United States?
Imagine if every single car accident was reported on the mainstream national media as a really, really important death. Of course, every car death is an important death. It’s always someone’s son or daughter or mother or father. But imagine they said there was an outbreak of car crashes, and really started hammering it, literally 24 hours a day in every media outlet.
Imagine if the reporters were coming on, saying “the death toll is rising… hospital emergency rooms are being overwhelmed with car crash victims… Donald Trump continues to ignore the problem…”
People would be scared. Death is scary.
Of course everyone would be afraid to get in a car and there would be people across the country calling for banning cars.
That’s what we have with this year’s flu.
Only banning cars would be a manageable goal. Stopping human beings from interacting with each other is an insane goal. And we’re all going to pay the price for it, I can promise you that.